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Baltic Daily Digest — 19 Sep 2026

2026-09-19

Daily Company Scan — 5 Companies
🇱🇹 Kopa.aiDEEP DIVE
AI/Software · Lithuania
AI agents for e-commerce teams.
Deal angle: Growth equity candidate after €2M seed round
Thesis: Kopa.ai offers AI agents to automate e-commerce ops in Lithuania, where Baltic peers trade at 5.6-15x EV/EBITDA with 5-20% margins. An investor gains early exposure to scalable SaaS that could lift retailer margins like Apranga or TKM Grupp via automation. Risk: post-seed valuation lacks EBITDA support versus mature Baltic comps.
Drachmann & Kjær ApS
· Denmark
Private Danish company (gross-profit basis)
Deal angle: Erhvervsstyrelsen annual reports (CVR)
Thesis: Drachmann & Kjær ApS provides Baltic groups (Tallink, Apranga, Grigeo) a low-visibility Danish bolt-on on gross-profit basis, potentially at a discount to 5.6-9.1x EV/EBITDA Baltic peers amid CVR-driven transparency. Buyer secures EU market access and margin upside versus lower-Baltic margins (4.9-9.7%). Key risk: absent sector data and undisclosed metrics hinder precise multiple application.
Bindesbøll Begravelsesforretning ApS
· Denmark
Private Danish company (gross-profit basis)
Deal angle: Erhvervsstyrelsen annual reports (CVR)
Thesis: Bindesbøll offers a defensive Danish funeral platform with recurring gross-profit cash flows amid Nordic aging demographics, potentially at a discount to Baltic peers trading 5.6-9.1x EV/EBITDA (Grigeo, Tallinna Sadam). Strategic acquirer gains bolt-on scale for cross-border consolidation and margin expansion toward 14-20% levels. Key risk: opaque private financials and low sector multiples limit exit visibility.
SD ApS
· Denmark
Private Danish company (gross-profit basis)
Deal angle: Erhvervsstyrelsen annual reports (CVR)
Thesis: SD ApS offers Baltic players (e.g., Tallink or Tallinna Sadam) a low-profile Danish bolt-on to diversify from 4.9–14.8% EBITDA margins into higher-margin gross-profit reporting under CVR rules. Acquirers gain immediate EU-27 revenue exposure at an undisclosed price likely below 7–9x peers. Key risk is zero public financial detail, complicating diligence versus listed Baltic names.
(Steidl) Assembly ApS
· Denmark
Private Danish company (revenue basis)
Deal angle: Erhvervsstyrelsen annual reports (CVR)
Thesis: Steidl Assembly ApS provides Baltic groups (e.g., Grigeo, Tallink, Apranga) a low-profile Danish revenue platform for Nordic expansion at 6-9x EV/EBITDA, below TKM1T’s 15x. An acquirer secures local assembly capacity and cross-border cash-flow diversification without public disclosure friction. Primary risk is opaque sector EBITDA and integration costs given zero sector data in CVR filings.
Deep Dive
🇱🇹 Kopa.ai
AI/Software · Lithuania · Growth equity candidate after €2M seed round

Company Overview

Kopa.ai builds AI agents that automate routine e-commerce operations such as inventory forecasting, pricing, customer support routing, and order management. Headquartered in Lithuania, the company targets regional online retailers and marketplaces that currently lack sophisticated automation. With revenue below €10M and only a €2M seed round closed, the firm remains pre-profit and small-scale, typical of early Baltic software ventures.

Deal Context

The transaction is positioned as growth equity rather than a sale or founder exit. The €2M seed provides runway for product expansion and Baltic market penetration, setting up a potential Series A or growth round within 18–24 months. Likely investors include regional Baltic funds seeking AI exposure and international SaaS specialists looking for low-cost engineering talent. Strategic buyers are limited at this stage; larger e-commerce platforms or ERP vendors would more likely appear post-Series B.

Valuation Context

Baltic listed peers trade between 5.6x and 15.0x EV/EBITDA with margins of 5–20 %, serving as an upper bound for mature, cash-generative businesses. Kopa.ai, lacking EBITDA and meaningful revenue, would attract a private-company discount of 40–60 % on any revenue multiple. Realistic pricing for an early-stage Baltic AI SaaS asset is 6–10x forward ARR, equating to a €10–20M post-money valuation assuming €2–3M ARR—materially below Western European AI multiples but still aggressive relative to local listed profitability benchmarks.

Triage Verdict

REVIEW

  • Fit: Strong sector and geography alignment with the AI/software thesis; only Baltic name showing concrete post-seed activity.
  • Red flags: Zero public track record, unclear customer concentration, and valuation unsupported by current financials versus listed Baltic peers.
  • Next step: Request ARR progression, churn data, and cap-table details to assess whether a co-lead or anchor position is feasible.

Key Risk

Early valuation inflation could leave limited headroom for follow-on investors if growth stalls before EBITDA inflection.

Kopa.ai warrants targeted diligence as the clearest near-term AI growth-equity opportunity in the Baltic pipeline.

Top Hedge Funds by YTD Return
# Fund AUM YTD Positions
1 Ma Investment Partnership, LP $322.6B +175.4% 18
2 Graticule Asia Macro Advisors LLC $1.1T +174.0% 4
3 Shengqi Capital (Hong Kong) Ltd $95.6B +150.0% 10
4 Anther Capital Ltd $3.8T +142.2% 31
5 Merck & Co., Inc. $625.7B +134.6% 26
6 Central Asset Investments & Manag… $261.4B +131.1% 63
7 Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd $731.4B +126.9% 14
8 Step Capital Management Pte. Ltd. $467.4B +119.9% 53
9 Elemental Capital Partners LLC $422.8B +119.6% 18
10 Grand Alliance Asset Management Ltd $302.6B +105.3% 24
Hedge Fund Spotlight
Shengqi Capital (Hong Kong) Ltd
AUM $95.6B · 10 positions · +150.0% YTD
Top 5 Holdings
Security Value Weight
MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC $67.6B 70.7%
PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC $27.9B 29.2%
ALPHABET INC $28.7M 0.0%
ALPHABET INC $28.7M 0.0%
PROSHARES TR $8.3M 0.0%
IPO Pipeline Snapshot
Upcoming IPOs
Company Ticker Exchange Expected Deal Value
SpaceX SPCX NASDAQ 2026-06-12 —
Cartesian Growth Corp IV CGCFU UNKNOWN TBD $287.5M
Research Alliance Corp IV RACD UNKNOWN TBD $75.0M
GLGHK Ltd GLG UNKNOWN TBD $40.2M
Pelican Acquisition II Corp PLCIU UNKNOWN TBD $86.2M
Pre-IPO Watchlist
Company Sector Valuation
Anthropic Artificial Intelligence $965.0B
OpenAI Artificial Intelligence $894.3B
Databricks Data and Analytics $200.4B
Deal Radar — Buyer ↔ Target Synergy Pairs
🇩🇰 Denmark · 3 pairs
BUYER · PUBLIC
Alfa Laval AB
ALFA.ST · $237.6B
→
3.65
TARGET · PRIVATE
Alfa Dana Holding ApS
· ~€414.3M rev
Solid — pursue with focused integration plan. Shared Nordic industrial machinery context and geographic closeness create reliable cost synergies via overhead and supply-chain consolidation as the primary lever; revenue upside is more uncertain and the biggest risk is overpaying for a private entity with opaque operations.
BUYER · PUBLIC
DCC ENERGY PLC ORD EUR0.25 (CDI
DCC.L · $5.4B
→
3.55
TARGET · PRIVATE
Circle K Danmark A/S
· ~€1506.8M rev
Solid — pursue with focused integration plan. Primary synergy is cost-driven fuel procurement and logistics scale (4), reinforced by vertical integration (4); revenue and organisational realisation risks cap the composite at 3.55, warranting disciplined integration planning rather than aggressive premium.
BUYER · PUBLIC
Shell PLC
SHEL · $273.5B
→
3.55
TARGET · PRIVATE
Circle K Danmark A/S
· ~€1506.8M rev
Solid — pursue with focused integration plan. Primary synergy is Shell securing a large captive outlet network for its refined products in Denmark, delivering reliable cost take-outs in procurement and logistics. Biggest risk is modest revenue upside combined with execution friction in a competitive, regulated retail market where Circle K already runs an efficient model.
🇳🇴 Norway · 3 pairs
BUYER · PUBLIC
Bravida Holding AB
BRAV.ST · $28.5B
→
3.65
TARGET · PRIVATE
ABB AS
Installasjon av industrimaskiner og -utstyr · ~€784.4M rev
Solid — pursue with focused integration plan. Bravida gains immediate Norwegian industrial installation scale and procurement synergies (biggest lever), offset by modest revenue upside and typical post-deal execution risk in service roll-ups.
BUYER · PUBLIC
VEIDEKKE
VEI.OL · $28.1B
→
3.60
TARGET · PRIVATE
AF GRUPPEN NORGE AS
Bygging av broer og tunneler · ~€869.7M rev
Solid — pursue with focused integration plan. VEIDEKKE gains the clearest value from cost take-outs in overlapping Norwegian civil works; revenue synergies are modest and organisational friction is the main downside. Antitrust scrutiny in the concentrated Norwegian infrastructure market is the key risk to monitor.
BUYER · PUBLIC
AKER SOLUTIONS
AKSO.OL · $21.1B
→
3.55
TARGET · PRIVATE
AIBEL AS
Bygging av sivile skip og flytende materiell · ~€1636.6M rev
Solid — pursue with focused integration plan. Primary lever is cost-driven yard and overhead consolidation in the concentrated Norwegian offshore sector; largest risk is antitrust scrutiny plus execution challenges from overlapping EPC workforces, tempered by full domestic alignment.
🇪🇪 Estonia · 3 pairs
BUYER · PUBLIC
Fortum Corporation
FORTUM.HE · $18.6B
→
3.55
TARGET · PRIVATE
EESTI ENERGIA AS
Electricity, Gas, Steam And Air Conditioning Supply · ~€1779.3M rev
Solid — pursue with focused integration plan. Fortum gains immediate Baltic generation and customer scale with credible cost synergies from regional consolidation; revenue and organisational realisation remain the main risks given target size and integration complexity.
BUYER · PUBLIC
SHELL PLC ORD EUR0.07
SHEL.L · $202.1B
→
3.55
TARGET · PRIVATE
ORLEN EESTI OÜ
Wholesale And Retail Trade; Repair Of Motor Vehicles And Motorcycles · ~€1158.7M rev
Solid — pursue with focused integration plan. Primary synergy is cost/operational via Shell's global fuel procurement and retail infrastructure applied to the target's 1.16B EUR Estonian wholesale/retail operations; largest risk is organizational distance and limited realization of revenue synergies in a small Baltic entity.
BUYER · PUBLIC
INCHCAPE PLC ORD 10P
INCH.L · $2.9B
→
3.55
TARGET · PRIVATE
TOYOTA BALTIC AS
Wholesale And Retail Trade; Repair Of Motor Vehicles And Motorcycles · ~€1008.6M rev
Solid — pursue with focused integration plan. Inchcape gains a scaled Baltic Toyota platform that delivers immediate procurement and distribution synergies while extending its European OEM footprint; largest risk is execution of cross-border integration and modest revenue upside realisation.
Featured Agent
Target Scanner
sourcing · Find acquisition targets by sector, geography, size — ranked by fit.
Scans public markets and proprietary databases for acquisition candidates matching a buyer's mandate. Returns a short list ranked by strategic fit, size, and acquirability.
Its editable system prompt:
# Target Scanner

You find acquisition targets that match a buyer's mandate.

## Input

A buyer's criteria — sector, geography, size, growth, profitability, strategic rationale.

## Output

8–12 target candidates as a Markdown table with columns:

| Company | Country | Revenue (EUR M) | EBITDA margin | Fit (1-5) | Strategic rationale |

Then a short commentary paragraph on any themes across the list (consolidation, succession risk, valuation cycle).

## Guardrails

- Realistic, publicly researchable companies. Do not invent.
- Rank by strategic fit, not alphabetical.
- Flag founder-owned / spo…

AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

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